Nicholas Nassim Taleb on Forecasts

"If you ever have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 'The Black Swan'

About this Bulletin

This Bulletin is a FREE service for our friends and clients published by FoodWorks Company Limited.

The objective of the Bulletin is to apply our expert analysis to the basic supply-demand balances and price trends in the food commodity markets and their related industries - to look critically and expertly at the "fundamentals" that drive the industries we work in as consultants and project managers.

We cover the main staple crops (wheat, coarse grains,  rice, corn/maize) together with oilseeds, oils and fats.  We also consider sugar, beverages (coffee and cocoa) and livestock products (dairy and meat from poultry and cattle).


We have a unique specialization in fruits and vegetables and in fishery (capture and aquaculture).

Our coverage will also from time to time cover industries that are critical to agriculture, including the crude petroleum oil market, fertilizers and transport (especially bulk sea freight).

CONTENTS

Current Market Analysis:  provides our current thinking about the markets, editorial comment and overviews of our industries.

FOODWORKS Co. Ltd: is background on who we are and what we do. Links to main company web site.

Individual Crop Pages provide basic fundamental data on corn (maize), wheat, rice, soybeans and vegoils. These are the supply-demand balance figures that are required to look at the markets from a long-term perspective.

TOOLS

The right hand column includes a number of useful tools:


  • Jim Rogers videos - inspirational guidance from the guru of ag commodities
  • RJA - Rogers International Commodities Index - Agri sub-set - the long running and most stable index of traded futures - via the ETF Database 
  • Chicago Futures Prices - updated daily from the CME Group 
  • @Agrimarkets - follow our daily market commentary on Twitter
  • Commodity Markets News Pages - direct links to the major news groups
  • LinkedIn Groups - discussions on the major business network, LinkedIn.com
  • Reference - key sources and useful links
  • Converters and Charts - useful conversions, World Clock and the DIY charting tool
  • Reuters Business News Feed (bottom of the page)

For more information please email us on: gqb@foodworks.ag


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Disclaimer: FoodWorks does not trade in the commodities cited in this Bulletin, neither does it hold stock positions in companies related to these markets.  The opinion provided here is our perspective on the markets at time of writing and we stand by it, however we do not accept responsibility for individual trades based on this analysis, neither do we believe that prediction of the future has great validity - our guiding principle is that it does no harm and probably some good to try and understand what's going on, but forecasting with any claim to avoiding the Black Swans is unlikely to be  worth reading.


Request: by all means copy the information on this site, but do please refer to us when you do so. Thanks!