Nicholas Nassim Taleb on Forecasts

"If you ever have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 'The Black Swan'

Rice

These data are the basic information needed to analyse the commodity markets. The data allow our readers to easily  form a comprehensive picture of the dynamics of the industry in question.

Market prices change continually on the basis of both speculative (or "technical") factors more or less purely related to prices.  

However the basic structure of the industry - production/ supply and demand/ consumption  together with trade and stocks -  determines the long term trends.

It is these "fundamental" characteristics of the industry that we believe show where there are profitable investments. In these pages we present the data and interpret it in an easily assimilated fashion to allow sense to be made of the many confusing reports that are found elsewhere.

Rice (page in draft)