Nicholas Nassim Taleb on Forecasts

"If you ever have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 'The Black Swan'

Charts and Articles

On this page we'll paste instructive charts about various markets from various sources (including ourselves).

When we can't copy the chart, we'll provide a link. And we'll provide the source and/or links to charts we have pasted here. We'll also link to interesting articles associated with the charts.

There's no particular order to this. By all means copy these charts as you wish and we hope you find the page is useful.




The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph


This is an interesting chart (and associated article) from a research letter written by Michael Cembalest, an analyst at JP Morgan. It comes via 'The Atlantic' on-line magazine and the full article and (for once) sensible comments can be found by clicking here.

Be a bit wary of the statistical/economic analysis but this is an overall interesting broad-brush look at trends.


Gold

We like this chart as we do any long term series that puts things in perspective. Great article too.











"What's Really Behind the Gold Collapse?", Cullen Roche, Business Insider, December 2011

Crude Oil



Source: TradingCharts.com - Light crude (nymex) - 22nd Dec 2011


Corn

Source: TradingCharts.com - CBOT Futures, December 22nd 2011


Wheat
Source: TradingCharts.com - Hard Red Spring, 22nd Dec 2011


Soybeans


                   
 Source: TradingCharts.com - 22nd Dec 2011