Nicholas Nassim Taleb on Forecasts

"If you ever have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 'The Black Swan'

Thursday, June 2, 2011

FISHERY: CATCHES ARE ON THE DECLINE

Wild fisheries are in crisis.  Management has failed.  Nations have been unable to manage their own capture fisheries leading to massive overfishing.  As incomes rise, more people want to eat fish and seafood precisely at the time that the catch is declining, writes our Fishery Analyst Robert Lindley.

Pakistan is a good example, where the catch is declining, the numbers of fishermen going up, where the government does nothing to control entry to the fishery.  Other examples are Thailand, where the catch has been at a low level for more than 35 years, Malawi, which has a lake that should produce 30% more fish than it is now and of course the Europe, which is devoted to subsidies to keep its fishermen employed (and the fish stocks overfished).  

But there is no realistic other livelihood for the coastal people who would be stopped from fishing under any attempts to control effort or access to the fishery.  People would just starve, and politicians won’t let that happen, due to the rioting and civil unrest that will occur,  and neither have the countries got the money to “buy them out”, (which is the approach taken in the UK).

Those fish stocks that straddle national boundaries are also gradually being destroyed by a failure of nations to agree on quotas or limits to catches.  The Bigeye and Yellowfin tuna in the Pacific area are now both now overfished despite the efforts of the Forum Fisheries Agency, South Pacific Commission (now South Pacific Community) and Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission all supposedly assisting the Pacific Nations for 20 years or more to manage their resources sustainably.

The chart (above) shows the increase in world capture since 1950.  There is a classic exponential rise in in the catch as the world recovered from the austerities of the Second World War, and then a more normal S-shaped curve associated with the use of a limited natural resource from 1970.  The key point is that in recent years it can be seen that the catch is absolutely flat and indeed has declined. It will go on doing so unless drastic action is taken.

Things are not helped by those counties who just rape and plunder, the Chinese being the greatest offenders, but the Spanish, Italians, Greeks, Japanese, Taiwanese and Koreans are also serial delinquents.  Countries without adequate controls are also guilty, such as Pakistan, where their boats just go out and fish, using illegal methods, and without permits.  This is called IUU fishing, Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported, and there is a lot of it about.

It is a feature of common property resources,  a failure to limit access sufficiently.  Things are going to get a worse before they get better, and improvements will be slow coming.  There are also the problems of climate change and pollution, coupled with degradation of habitat in coastal areas which also affect capture fisheries.

Capture fisheries, whilst not completely a write off, are in a period of stagnation, which is likely to last for many years.  All is not lost however; opportunities exist.  Value will not come from increasing catches, but from increasing the value of the catch. 

This can be achieved by:-

  1. Improving the quality of the existing catch by looking after it better, from capture to consumer, throughout the whole cool chain.  The same fish is worth more, merely by not allowing it to deteriorate.  It is surprising how much of the world catch is allowed to lose quality, and hence value, even before it is landed, merely through the failure to apply ice to the fish at sea.
  2. Adding value to the catch directly, by making it into something which sells for more.  Even simple processing, like filleting or steaking to make the product more acceptable to the consumer can vastly increase value and thus profits.  Most prawns for instance are now peeled & deveined prior to sale, since the consumer prefers this.  Even small improvements in packaging, such as vacuum packing, can make a big difference to the value of a fish product.
  3. Moving existing fish to places where the price is better.  Many countries are finding out that the appetite for fish in rich countries is insatiable, due in part for its reputation for being a healthy protein source.  A fish worth little in one place may fetch far more if moved to a better market.
So there are opportunities in capture fisheries, but the catching segment itself is probably not where they are.  Processing and marketing is the opportunity.  Let the others scrabble about trying to catch the fish !

The author, Robert Lindley, has more than 30 years experience of international fisheries.

Contact him by email on:
rhlindley@yahoo.co.uk

A second article by Mr. Lindley will concern itself with Aquaculture